Most marketers don’t realize that Google has been losing search market share in EU countries.
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
The drop in market share comes at a time when Google’s business is under siege:
The DoJ recommended separating Google from Chrome and Android amid a lawsuit against Alphabet. (I summarized the lawsuit and potential outcomes in Monopoly.)
The Justice Department runs a separate lawsuit against Google’s advertising business.
Canada just sued Google over anti-competitive practices in online ads.
ChatGPT, Perplexity & Co are growing mind and market share. (I covered the meteoric rise of ChatGPT in ChatGPT Search.)
Google faces heavy regulation in the EU from the DMA (Digital Marketing Act), which I wrote about in 2 Internets.
So, the question is two-fold: How much does the drop in market share matter, and what is the driver?
The short answer is that the drop matters more than Alphabet might like to admit.
It gives oxygen to competitors and weakens the body in the fight against external agents. Google’s revenue is still strong, but advertising market share is declining.
A mix of regulation, competitors, and negative sentiment toward Google seem responsible for the drop.
The implication is that marketers increasingly need to track and optimize for more search engines, but a more fragmented playing field could also be an opportunity for more referral traffic from search engines to websites.
What Is Going On With Google?
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
Google’s market share over the last 10 years dipped by -5.6 pp (percentage points) in France and -3.3 pp in Germany.
StatCounter has never recorded such a low share since measuring data in January 2009.
France and Germany are not the only ones. Most EU countries saw Google’s market share drip in the last five years (mobile):
Austria: -4.1 pp.
Poland: -3.1 pp.
Switzerland: -2.3 pp.
Netherlands: -2.1 pp.
Denmark: -1.5 pp.
Zooming further in also doesn’t change things. Google market share over the last 12 months (mobile):
France: -4.6 pp.
Austria: -3.2 pp.
Poland: -2.4 pp.
Germany: -2.1 pp.
Switzerland: -1.3 pp.
Netherlands: -1.0 pp.
Denmark: -1.0 pp.
What’s going on? The picture becomes clearer when we look at when the trend changes. There are two inflection points: November 2018 and April 2024.
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
The data shows a shift away from Google starting around April, a month after Android and Apple introduced choice screens for browsers and search engines.
In other words, Google can no longer be the default search engine on mobile and desktop devices. We’re starting to see the results.
However, not all countries see a dip. Why?
Why Are Some Countries Flat?
Google’s market share isn’t down in every EU country, e.g.:
Portugal.
Spain.
Italy.
Ireland.
How come? These countries are part of Europe, and users see a choice screen.
The answer is devices. The countries listed above lost market share on desktop but not mobile.
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
This happens everywhere in the EU. Over the last five years, Google lost -2.1% market share on mobile compared to -10% on desktop in the EU.
Why?
A big part of the reason is the exclusive distribution agreement with Apple.
Windows is the dominant desktop operating system, with +75% in the EU, largely because of its domination in corporate computing. MacOS has only 15.1%.
While Android (Google’s operating system) also has the majority market share on mobile with 66.5%, Apple’s iOS has 33%.
And since Google is the default search engine on Apple devices by paying a $20 billion fee, its position is more solid in the EU on mobile – until the DMA forced choice screens in March.
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
But what about countries that show a decline in Google’s market share before March? Way before!
Why Does The Dip Start Earlier In Some Countries?
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
Google lost market share in countries like Germany and Portugal as early as November 2018. So, there must be something else going on besides choice screens and device-specific dynamics.