In August 2024, Google lost its first major antitrust case in the U.S. Department of Justice vs. Google.
While we all gained some interesting insights about how Google’s algorithm works (hello, NavBoost!), understanding the implications of this loss for Google as a business is not the easiest to unravel. Hence, this article.
There’s still plenty we don’t know about Google’s future as a result of this trial, but it’s clear there will be consequences ahead.
Even though Google representatives have said they will appeal the decision, both sides are already working on proposals for how to restore competition, which will be decided by August 2025.
My significant other is a corporate lawyer, and this trial has been a frequent topic at the dinner table over the course of the last year.
We come from different professional backgrounds, but we have been equally invested in the outcome – both for our respective careers and industries. His perspective has helped me better grasp the potential legal and business outcomes that could be ahead for Google.
I will break that down for you in this article, along with what that could mean for the SEO industry and Search at-large.
Background: The Case Against Google
In August 2024, Federal Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Google violated the U.S. antitrust law by maintaining an illegal monopoly through exclusive agreements it had with companies like Apple to be the world’s default search engine on smartphones and web browsers.
During the case, we learned that Google paid Apple $20 billion in 2022 to be the default search engine on its Safari browser, thus making it impossible for other search engines like DuckDuckGo or Bing to compete.
This case ruling also found Google guilty of monopolizing general search text advertising because Google was able to raise prices on ad products higher than what would have been possible in a free market.
Those ads are sold via Google Ads (formerly AdWords) and allow marketers to run ads against search keywords related to their business.
Note: There is a second antitrust case still underway about whether Google has created illegal monopolies with open web display ad technology as well. Closing arguments will be heard for that in November 2024 with a verdict to follow
Remedies Proposed By The DOJ
On Oct. 8, 2024, the DOJ filed proposed antitrust remedies for Google. Until this point, there has been plenty of speculation about potential solutions.
Now, we know that the DOJ will be seeking remedies in four “categories of harm”:
Search Distribution and Revenue Sharing.
Accumulation and Use of Data.
Generation and Display of Search Results.
Advertising Scale and Monetization.
The following sections highlight potential remedies the DOJ proposed in that filing.
Ban On Exclusive Contracts
In order to address Google’s search distribution and revenue sharing, it is likely that we will see a ban on exclusive contracts going forward for Google.
In the Oct. 8 filing, the DOJ outlined exploring limiting or prohibiting default agreements, pre-installation agreements, and other revenue-sharing agreements related to search and search-related products.
Given this is what the case was centered around, it seems most likely that we will see some flavor of this outcome, and that could provide new incentives for innovation around search at Apple.
Apple Search Engine?
Judge Mehta noted in his judgment that Apple had periodically considered building its own search technology, but decided against it when an analysis in 2018 concluded Apple would lose more than $12 billion in revenue during the first five years if they broke up with Google.
If Google were no longer able to have agreements of this nature, we may finally see Apple emerge with a search engine of its own.
According to a Bloomberg report in October 2023, Apple has been “tinkering” with search technology for years.
It has a large search team dedicated to a next-generation search engine for Apple’s apps called “Pegasus,” which has already rolled out in some apps.
And its development of Spotlight to help users find things across their devices has started adding web results to this tool pointing users to sites that answer search queries.
Apple already has a web crawler called Applebot that finds sites it can provide users in Siri and Spotlight. It has also built its own search engines for some of its services like the App Store, Maps, Apple TV, and News.
Apple purchased a company called Laserlike in 2019, which is an AI-based search engine founded by former Google employees. Apple’s machine learning team has been seeking new engineers to work on search technologies as well.
All of these could be important infrastructure for a new search engine.
Implications For SEO
If users are given more choices in their default search engine, some may stray away from Google, which could cut its market share.
However, as of now, Google is still thought of as the leader in search quality, so it’s hard to gauge how much would realistically change if exclusive contracts were banned.
A new search engine from Apple would obviously be an interesting development. It would be a new algorithm to test, understand, and optimize for.
Knowing that users are hungry for another quality option, people would likely embrace Apple in this space, and it could generate a significant amount of users, if the results are high enough quality. Quality is really key.
Search is the most used tool on smartphones, tablets, and computers. Apple has the users that Google needs.
Without Apple’s partnership with Google, Apple has the potential to disrupt this space. It can offer a more integrated search experience than any other company out there. And its commitment to privacy is appealing to many long-time Google users.
The DOJ would likely view this as a win as well because Apple is one of the few companies large enough to fully compete across the search space with Google.
Required Sharing Of Data To Competitors
Related to the accumulation and use of data harm Google has caused, the DOJ is considering a remedy that forces Google to license its data to competitors like Bing or DuckDuckGo.
The antitrust ruling found that Google’s contracts ensure that Google gets the most user data, and that data streams also keep its competitors from improving their search results to compete better.
In the Oct. 8 filing, the DOJ is considering forcing Google to make: 1) the indexes, data, fees, and models used for Google search, including those used in AI-assisted search features, and 2) Google search results, features, and ads, including the underlying ranking signals available via API.
Believe it or not, this solution has precedent, although certainly not at the same scale as what is being proposed for Google.
The DOJ required AT&T to provide royalty-free licenses to its patents in 1956, and required Microsoft to make some of its APIs available to third parties for free after they lost an antitrust case in 1999.
Google has argued that there are user privacy concerns related to data sharing. The DOJ’s response is that it is considering prohibiting Google from using or retaining data that cannot be shared with others because of privacy concerns.
Implications For SEO
Should Google be required to do any of this, it would be an unprecedented victory for the open web. It is overwhelming to think of the possibilities if any of these repercussions were to come to fruition.
We would finally be able to see behind the curtain of the algorithm and ranking signals at play. There would be a true open competition to build rival search engines.
If Google were no longer to use personalized data, we might see the end of personalized search results based on your search history, which has pros and cons.
I would also be curious what would happen to Google Discover since that product provides content based on your browsing history.