Companies are increasingly requesting SEO projections.
It’s a reasonable request. SEO efforts often require significant resources and companies want to know what kind of return they can expect.
However, accurately predicting future organic growth is never straightforward.
Countless variables can impact outcomes. Think of:
Algorithm updates.
Fluctuating click-through rates.
SERP changes.
The speed (or lack) of implementation.
As an SEO professional, how do you approach the challenge of making SEO projections when so much is uncertain?
This article describes a step-by-step process for creating SEO projections. It also explores two alternative methods that might help you sidestep difficult projection discussions altogether.
Making SEO projections: A step-by-step process
A robust SEO projection requires a methodical, data-driven approach.
This method provides a detailed framework for forecasting organic search performance with greater precision and confidence.
1. Pull all relevant keywords a website ranks for, the search volume and current rank
If you want the result to be as accurate as possible, remove any irrelevant keywords from this list so as not to overinflate the monthly search volume.
Your final list should look something like this:
In our example, let’s say that the website in question ranks for 1,500 relevant keywords that add up to 57,320 monthly searches.
2. Gather estimated click-through rates by position
CTRs vary significantly depending on where a keyword ranks – Position 1 typically has a much higher CTR than Position 12.
While this isn’t perfect, as CTRs can differ by industry and website, it’s far more accurate than applying a uniform CTR across all ranks.
Depending on your source, your CTR list might look something like this:
Tip: I recommend getting CTRs for positions 1-20. Since CTRs are pretty much non-existent after Position 20, you can assume that any position changes that happen in Positions 21+ do not contribute any new visits.
3. Multiply the MSV by the CTR for the current position
Multiplying the monthly search volume by the CTR provides an estimate of the monthly traffic each keyword is currently generating for your website. These estimates serve as a baseline for measuring future increases.
The result should look something like this:
Be sure to validate your numbers. Double-check your keyword data and make adjustments if they seem overly high or unrealistic.
4. Estimate how much your SEO tactics will improve keyword rankings and calculate new visits
Projections rely on a key assumption. While no SEO can guarantee ranking improvements, the expectation is that higher rankings will lead to increased CTRs and more traffic.
Set realistic ranking improvements, as shown below, and multiply the search volume by the corresponding new CTR.
A couple of other important points on the table above.
You’ll notice in the above table that the “New Visits” column subtracts out the current visits. This makes sense, right? We want our projections to show the increase in visits against the current baseline, not the total number of visits.
Since SEO doesn’t happen overnight, think about the timeframe you expect to see these increases. I like to use at least six months to a year as a timeframe but consider the difficulty of keyword targets, their competitive landscape and overall scope. This is yet another assumption that you will have to consider as part of these projections.
I use an Excel sheet with formulas and VLOOKUPs to automate this entire process, so consider making yourself a template for this exercise.
At the end of this step, you should have an idea of the number of new visits you can expect by improving the current rankings for these keywords. This will be the basis of the projection moving forward.
In this example, let’s say this comes out to 5,260 new monthly visits.
Tip: Make sure the number of new monthly visits seems reasonable. If your numbers say that you are going to 20x new visits in a year, then you may want to rework the numbers to be a little less aggressive.
5. Define metrics like average conversion rate and average conversion value
These metrics can be obtained from first-party analytics data or by asking the business for their internal figures. Often, businesses requesting a projection will provide these numbers upfront.
Regardless, it’s essential to align on these metrics, as obtaining values like average order value from non-ecommerce businesses can sometimes be challenging.
It’s important to consider that conversion rates and values can vary across different sections of a site, such as blogs, service pages or the homepage.
This variability is another assumption to keep in mind. For this example, we’ll use a conversion rate of 2% and an average order value of $150.
6. Multiply the sum of new traffic by the average conversion rate
Add the total number of new visits from the table above, then multiply it by the average conversion rate.
This calculation provides the estimated number of new monthly conversions from improved rankings and a greater share of the monthly search volume.