For example, 5,260 new visits x 2% conversion rate = 105 new monthly conversions.
7. Multiply the number of new conversions by the average conversion value
This calculation provides the estimated monthly revenue a website can expect from ranking improvements.
For example, 105 new conversions x $150 average order value = $15,750 monthly revenue.
Remember that SEO results are gradual, so these numbers will build incrementally over the selected timeframe.
Here’s an example of what the full process to this point could look like:
This final step provides actionable numbers based on keyword research and calculations, with some assumptions. However, if you want to refine these numbers further, see the next step.
8. Layer the amount of new traffic or conversions over existing performance
Consider the timeframe for ranking improvements when making projections.
If you have access to first-party data, you can layer your projections on top of current performance to see how these gains will unfold over time.
This step is crucial, especially if existing performance is trending downward. It helps ensure your projections align with current trends and avoid overpromising.
For example, the projected gains might be enough to bring performance back to last year’s baseline if it has been in decline.
At my agency, a data, analytics and insights team handles this using predictive modeling, but when done correctly, it might look something like this:
And with that, you’ve completed a thorough SEO projection.
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SEO projection alternatives
Two alternative projection methods can provide valuable insights for situations requiring faster turnaround or limited data access:
Opportunity analysis.
Hybrid opportunity analysis.
Opportunity analysis
An opportunity analysis showcases the number of keywords and search volume within striking distance.
The idea is to look into the total addressable market (TAM) and the opportunity to capitalize on it.
All it takes is pulling the keywords a website ranks for, their current rank, the MSV, and doing a little math to group them by position. Here’s what it could look like in practice:
When you have the data organized in this way, you can make callouts to show the opportunity that exists, such as:
“There are 1.5 million monthly searches where your website already ranks on Page 2 and beyond.”
Also, add CPC data to show what it could cost them to buy clicks for all these keywords from a paid campaign. It could be a compelling insight that resonates with their bottom line, like:
“$23,471 is what it would cost per click to get traffic from each of these keywords.”
Chances are your SEO campaign costs significantly less than that, and the business doesn’t have to keep paying over time to get those clicks from organic sources. Talk about real value!
This method isn’t an exact science, but it works without needing first-party data, which some businesses may be reluctant to share.
Still, it’s helped me avoid several in-depth projection discussions, and it might work for you too.
Hybrid opportunity analysis
Taking the opportunity analysis a step further, the hybrid method introduces additional layers of financial estimation.
You can pair monthly search volume with additional data like:
Average click-through rate.
Average order value.
Average conversion rate.
This is another quick and dirty way to get real dollar values without spending much time digging. For example:
Pull the keywords that you plan to target and get a sum of the MSV. This could be existing keywords, new keywords, or a combination of both. For this example, we’ll use 100,000 MSV.
This step can be quick and easy by pulling all the keywords a website ranks for in positions 1-100 from a third-party tool or long and tedious by filtering and removing irrelevant keywords for a more accurate list. Use your judgment on what you have time for and what is needed in your given situation.
Set an average click-through rate (CTR). Average CTRs will vary by website, industry and keyword, but most sources will give you an average between 1% and 5%. For this example, we’ll use 4%.
Set an average order value (AOV) and average conversion rate. This can be done by digging through first party data, assuming you have access, or asking the business for these numbers. We’ll use a 3% CVR and AOV of $75.
Average order value = (organic revenue) / (number of organic transactions)
Then do some math.
(100,000 monthly searches) x (4% CTR) = 4,000 visits
(4,000 visits) x (3% CVR) = 120 conversions
(120 conversions) x ($75 AOV) = $9,000 per month
Practical steps for predicting SEO growth
As with any projection, it’s important to have a list of caveats ready when presenting your findings.
While these projections are based on research and data, they involve several assumptions, such as:
How much rankings will actually improve.
The accuracy of CTRs.
How long performance increases will take.
Whether conversion rates will remain consistent.
Whether the business will implement your recommendations.
There are no perfect solutions to some of these assumptions without advanced predictive analytics. Many factors are beyond our control, making it impossible to guarantee precise outcomes.
That said, I hope these insights equip you to have informed discussions about future performance. Now, go ahead and start making your own SEO projections!
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