Fragmentation could further intensify these challenges, not only from the platform side but also from the labor side.
Advertisers will need to hire more platform specialists, which typically cost more than generalists in terms of salary.
Reid Thomas agrees with this, pointing out that it seems counterintuitive.
Despite their apparent similarities, Google and Bing differ significantly in their algorithms, user interfaces and overall search experiences for users and ad specialists.
The bidding systems and auction dynamics in Google Ads and Bing Ads differ, influencing CPC and overall campaign effectiveness.
If the courts ever restricted Google or mandated its division into separate entities for search, we might witness the rise of Bing experts alongside Google experts who also specialize in Bing.
This assumes that the volume of searches and the return on investment for advertisers on Bing justify the costs of dedicating resources to this platform.
6. Increased training costs
It is advantageous for a Google Ads expert to understand how Facebook Ads and Amazon Ads and other platforms operate.
Although Google Ads experts may not actively manage these platforms daily, having cross-platform knowledge allows experts to better assess the role each platform plays in relation to Google Ads.
If Google were to be divided, the demand for this training would rise as additional platforms become options for search.
This assumes that a breakup of Google introduces more competitors beyond just Microsoft’s Bing and that the new platforms offer distinctly different products.
Julie Bacchini has also been thinking about this, reminding us that this could happen quickly.
7. Media plan complexity
For large advertisers, media planners handle intricately complex strategies that include spending on platforms such as Google, TikTok, influencer marketing, programmatic and CTV.
The emergence of the media planner role has led to specialists adept at quickly adjusting year-long media plans mid-campaign and projecting the revenue impacts of the moving media budgets.
This role ensures media budgets are allocated to the platforms performing best at each stage of the campaign.
If the market begins to fragment, this role will become even more demanding, as advertisers want to be agile when allocating budgets during the campaign’s duration.
Dividing Google search would significantly increase the demands on media planning teams, requiring them to manage exponentially more scenarios for budget allocation in already complex plans.
8. Higher CPCs
Fragmented search volumes on platforms may drive up CPCs due to intensified competition at the platform level.
Additionally, increased operational costs – such as those for server time – could trickle down to advertisers, reducing ROI.
Google already limits low-volume keyword bids to control the cost associated with serving ads.
Segmenting search across various platforms could increase its prevalence by decreasing searches on each platform. This would align the ad serving costs more closely with the CPC, thereby reducing margins.
9. Google targeting shifts
We can only speculate on what a division of Google might entail, but let’s consider a scenario where Google must separate YouTube and its search operations.
Currently, Google uses a wealth of user data across its various platforms to create detailed user profiles and highly targeted ads.
However, if these platforms were separated, the amount of data available for targeting could be reduced.
This could lead to less precise targeting, potentially impacting the effectiveness of ad campaigns.
Additionally, integrating YouTube and Google Search allows for sophisticated cross-platform targeting strategies.
For example, advertisers can target users who have watched a specific YouTube video with relevant search ads.
If these platforms were separated, such cross-platform targeting opportunities might be limited or even eliminated.
It’s important to note that this is just a potential scenario. The actual impact of a Google split on targeting would depend on the specific details of the division and any new regulations or policies that might be implemented.
10. Innovation slowdown
Although the previous section discussed the potential for increased innovation, a Google split could also reduce innovation.
While outcomes are unpredictable, it is important to consider all scenarios.
Google has a vast amount of user data, which is a key driver of innovation in the paid search industry.
A split could reduce the amount of data available to each company, hindering the development of advanced targeting and measurement tools.
11. Regulatory scrutiny
A split could subject the new companies to increased regulatory scrutiny, potentially adding additional costs and bureaucratic burdens that could hamper innovation.
This is basically a case of laws and regulations being enhanced to avoid another Google situation.
However, considering these new companies will be smaller and may not have the same resources as a larger corporation like Google, excessive regulatory rulings could stifle their growth and hinder their ability to compete or go to market with an alternative platform.
12. Impact on employment
The impact of Google’s disappearance on employment in the paid search industry would be significant and far-reaching.
Google employs a vast workforce to develop, maintain and support its advertising platforms. A significant portion of these jobs would likely be eliminated.
Numerous agencies, consultants and freelancers rely on Google Ads as a core part of their business. Reducing Google’s dominance could lead to job losses in these sectors.
This could also decrease the demand for specialized skills related to Google Ads, such as campaign optimization, audits and strategy work.
On the other hand, Google’s absence could shift new job opportunities as businesses look for alternative ways to reach their target audience.
Other search engines or social media platforms may see increased demand for their advertising services. This could open up different roles for paid search marketers and advertisers familiar with these platforms.
What should marketers and advertisers consider in the short term?
To navigate potential disruptions, PPC marketers should prioritize adaptable strategies that can withstand shifts in the paid search ecosystem.
Platform diversification
Begin experimenting with alternative platforms to build resilience in case of fragmentation. While testing requires a budget, the insights gained could prevent over-reliance on a single platform.
Develop cross-platform skills
Train teams in data analysis, human behavior and cross-channel strategies.
Adaptability is crucial as market dynamics evolve.
Adopt flexible tools
Leverage and engage with thought leaders from third-party vendors like Optmyzr that facilitate multi-platform campaign management and analysis.
Vendors can serve as valuable guides, integrating data across platforms and adapting to industry changes.
Build resilient strategies
Focus on developing platform-agnostic strategies that can be implemented across multiple channels.
Understanding search intent and customer psychology will remain valuable regardless of the specific platform.
Technological agility
Invest in tools and teams that allow for flexible adaptation across platforms.
Channel relationships
Cultivate connections with platform vendors and search engine representatives to stay informed of future changes.
Ongoing training
Keep skill sets current in areas like data analytics, audience insights and regulatory updates.
Marketing fundamentals remain constant even as digital spaces evolve.
Looking forward
It’s important to note that the actual impact of a Google split will depend on various factors, including the specific terms of the split, the competitive landscape and overall economic conditions.
A Google breakup would undoubtedly reshape the paid search landscape, requiring paid search marketers to embrace new strategies and technologies and possibly higher costs.
Advertisers can navigate a diversified market and leverage competition by staying adaptable and informed.
The skills to analyze and optimize remain more critical than ever. Equally important is delivering marketing in a privacy-focused manner that respects consumers while they browse online.
Contributing authors are invited to create content for Search Engine Land and are chosen for their expertise and contribution to the search community. Our contributors work under the oversight of the editorial staff and contributions are checked for quality and relevance to our readers. The opinions they express are their own.