Kevin Indig's Growth Memo for SEJ

ChatGPT Search May Have A Shot At Google

ChatGPT Search (CGS) is a landmark launch in the shift from traditional to AI Search.

Now, OpenAI competes with Google (Search) heads-on. Note the subtle elbow hit between the lines in the announcement:

Getting useful answers on the web can take a lot of effort. It often requires multiple searches and digging through links to find quality sources and the right information for you.

The positioning is clear: ChatGPT Search is a way to get a straight answer without digging through cluttered search results or browsing websites.

CGS, which is directly integrated with ChatGPT instead of a standalone search engine, decides whether a query benefits from web results or not, and you can rerun queries through other models like o1 preview to compare the answers:

ChatGPT will choose to search the web based on what you ask, or you can manually choose to search by clicking the web search icon.

It keeps the context of your search going in a conversation interface (bolding from me):

Go deeper with follow-up questions, and ChatGPT will consider the full context of your chat to get a better answer for you.

ChatGPT Search’s interface features prominent links to sources (Image Credit: Kevin Indig)
OpenAI has a strategic advantage, as I explained in Search GPT:

The Information reports that OpenAI loses $5 billion a year in expenses. Just capturing 3% of Google’s $175 billion Search business would allow OpenAI to recoup expenses.

OpenAI has a strategic advantage over Google: Search GPT can provide a very different, maybe less noisy, user experience than Google because it’s not reliant on ad revenue. In any decision regarding Search, Google needs to take ads into account.

CGS marks the entry to a new paradigm where traditional search engines like Google or Bing compete with AI chatbots.

They solve the same problems for users as search engines but with lower friction. But it also marks a critical event that should lead you to evaluate your strategy.

Companies face a choice to invest and “be early” to AI Search or ignore the noise and stay the course. What makes this decision hard:

Divided opinions about Chat GPT’s chance to take significant market share from Google.
Rapidly changing mechanisms of AI Search platforms.
Confusion about what to do.

The first search engines didn’t represent the model (Google) that eventually won.

In the same vein, the AI Search experience we’re seeing today might be completely different in a few years. However, there is little doubt that search is fundamentally changing.

As a result, my recommendation is to invest in AI Search. It is not capital-intensive (yet), but the upside to finding a playbook is high.

If CGS grabs significant Google market share, you’re in a good position. If it fails, no harm is done.

Collision Course

Based on recent traffic trends, ChatGPT could catch up to Google in 2 years. (Image Credit: Kevin Indig)
In the chart above, I extrapolated ChatGPT’s and Google’s total traffic over the next two years if the trend from the last six months remains constant.

This chart will probably outrage or scare you, but the chance that events unfold exactly as depicted in this chart is low.

The reason I bring it up here is to consider the fact that many structural changes start slowly based on the saying “first gradually, then suddenly.”

It took Google about three to four years to beat Yahoo, Altavista, and Lycos. Given that new technology gets to critical mass ever faster, I’m not surprised ChatGPT could do it faster (in theory).

ChatGPT’s traffic has already passed the No. 3 search engine, Bing (YouTube is second).

When you look at comments and posts on social media, more and more people report using ChatGPT instead of Google for various purposes, but that could be availability bias.

Image Credit: Kevin Indig
One point a lot of people miss when looking at the traffic comparison between ChatGPT and Bing is that they’re not the same, and yet this is a fair comparison.

ChatGPT is more than a search engine. People use it for all sorts of things. But that’s exactly the point: a search engine that looks like Google never stood a chance to compete with Google or Bing.

CGS is something new, and that’s why it stands a chance. So, when you see chatgpt.com passing bing.com, the critical argument is not that both do different things but that they’re used to accomplish the same goal.

After all, search is just a way to solve problems or achieve goals, not to search for the sake of searching.

To clarify, I don’t think Google or Alphabet as a company is at risk of dying. I do think CGS has a chance to capture significant market share, and too many people underestimate how fast this can go.

Referral Traffic Skyrockets

ChatGPT’s outgoing referral traffic is skyrocketing (Image Credit: Kevin Indig)
AI Search marks a new paradigm where users get a direct answer without having to browse websites. So, how should companies think about pivoting their strategy?

Here’s what I’m telling my clients when they ask me whether they should pivot their SEO roadmap: For now, no. Reserve 10 to 20% of capacity to establish visibility in AI Search and for experimentation.

Look for signal: If you’re hesitant to invest more in AI Search right now, at least monitor traffic to and from ChatGPT. Base your decision on how long ChatGPT can keep its current traffic trend up.

Establishing visibility: This referral dashboard from Flow Agency is great for monitoring referral traffic.

With a few tweaks, you can monitor conversions in GA4 as well. You should also monitor site crawls from LLMs and your performance on Bing.

Then, experiment with content tweaks to improve your AI Search visibility. Keep investing in traditional SEO because it forms the basis of AI Search and answers.

Place a bet: The big question in this is whether you’re willing to take a bet or play it safe.

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