The point of making predictions is not to be right but to understand reality so well that you can make an educated guess about where it goes and learn something in the process.
I also enjoy the discussion I have based on sharing my predictions. They always make me smarter. So, please share your opinions in the comments.
Previous predictions: 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023
2024 Predictions Review
2024 was a big breakthrough year:
AI Overviews: from search results to AI answers.
Starlink: from broadband to satellite internet.
SpaceX: From Earth to space.
o1 and Gemini 2.0 Flash: from LLMs to reasoning.
Waymo: from ride-hailing to self-driving.
Meta Ray Bans: from smartwatches to smart glasses.
YouTube: from text to video.
I made eight predictions for this year:
A Wave Of AI Improvements
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
I expected concrete features and feature improvements from AI – and I got it right. A lot of big sites shipped better experiences thanks to AI: Tripadvisor, Booking, Expedia, Trip.com, Nextdoor, Ebay, Amazon, and more. As I highlighted in my latest Travel deep dive, we’ve seen the first real results from AI Features: TripAdvisors review pages doubled in organic traffic after adding AI-generated review summaries.
The bigger picture: AI trickles through all aspects of Product. The key to monetization is making it useful – not just cool. And 2024 is the year we’ve seen the first prototypes, like natural language search or AI reviews.
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
I found 11 publisher deals with LLM developers in 2024, as the traditional media landscape has continued to atrophy:
News is a commodity unless you break it first, leading to a dogfight between publishers in the digital world.
Trust in traditional media is crumbling, reducing readership, especially among younger generations.
Google has slashed affiliate revenue streams with its site reputation abuse penalties, taking away the last lucrative income stream for many publishers.
Licensing might not turn publishing into a flaming hot industry again, but it throws a lifeline to starving companies.
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In 2024, the major SEO tool vendors added multiple AI features to their platforms:
Semrush (source):
Demand forecast.
Personal Keyword Difficulty.
Keyword Strategy Builder.
Ahrefs (source)
AI Keyword Suggestions.
AI Search Intent.
AI Content Helper.
AI Translations.
AI doesn’t just transform the search experience but the tools SEOs use every day.
Image Credit: Kevin IndigSource
In 2024, I expected many companies to focus more on organic growth channels like SEO, content marketing, social, podcasting and email nurturing. And indeed, marketing budgets have accelerated their decline after the pandemic from 11% in 2020 to 7.7% in 2024 of total revenue, leaving less room for advertising.
In November 2024, the CMO survey found that advertising sees the lowest spend growth while brand building and product marketing gains the most.
👎🏻 Google/Microsoft Build Powerful AI Agents Based On Your Emails
Image Credit: Kevin Indig
In September 2023, Google’s Bard got access to Gmail. I tried it out, and it was terrible. Hallucinations left and right.
Google sits on a treasure trove of data as it owns Android, YouTube, Gmail, Maps and is one of the two most used one-tap authentication solutions next to Apple. Microsoft has Outlook, GitHub, Linkedin, Edge, Skype and more.